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Custom run

Configure a scenario and run it through the engine. A worker picks the run off the queue within a few minutes, then it computes in about a minute; you'll be redirected to a live status page to watch it.

Not sure where to start? Try a preset:

Or compare pricing carbon vs. mortality:

Coal exits under either. Gas is where they disagree — flip between these and watch the gas build move.

Save this scenario to reuse or share it — or load one you saved earlier.

Scenario basics

CO₂ price, interest, and demand

Initial is the year-one value. Yearly means something different per knob:

  • CO₂ price — the ceiling the price climbs to. It rises by the initial amount each year until it gets there. So $50 initial with a $500 yearly reaches $500 in year 10 and stays there; a yearly below the initial never rises at all.
  • Interest and demand — a multiplier applied each year. 1.02 compounds at 2%/yr; 1.0 holds flat.
CO₂ price ($/MT)
Interest rate
Demand growth

Demand growth defaults to CAL's historical average (~4.0%/yr, an initial multiplier of 1.040). Each region carries its own; change the initial value above to override.

Mortality price

What the model assumes society is willing to pay to prevent one death. Set to zero, deaths are reported but don't change what gets built.

$0

Presets are HHS's 2026 published range (constant 2025 dollars): a range, not a recommended figure.

Assigning a dollar value to a death is a moral choice you are making, not a technical parameter the model resolves for you.

Advanced: per-source cost assumptions▾

The defaults here are real-world cost figures — capital cost to build, fixed and variable costs to run, plant lifetime, and the maximum share of the grid a source can grow to in a year. Leave these alone unless you want to test a specific assumption (e.g. “what if nuclear were 30% cheaper to build?”).

Solar

Capital cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Lifetime
Max %

Wind

Capital cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Lifetime
Max %

Nuclear

Capital cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Lifetime
Max %

Gas

Capital cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Lifetime
Max %

Coal

Capital cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Lifetime
Max %

Battery

Capital cost
Fixed cost
Variable cost
Lifetime
Max %